One school of thought in BC says you “plan for the worst and hope for the best”. Sometimes that makes us like “Chicken Little” – we run around warning against the sky falling.

That is pretty much what happened with Y2K – often driven by consultants who had not worked in BC before or since. Nothing happened – it doesn’t matter why it didn’t happen.

Anybody remember 2000/2001? You could not get $1 to spend on BC. At least not till September ’01.

Have we done the same with Pandemic Planning?

I have honestly (meaning I honestly believed what I was saying) presented Pandemic as an extreme risk. But it didnt happen at the level of severity predicted. We have been in global Pandemic for how many  months?

Anybody invoked any of the plans they devised pre-the H1N1 outbreak?

Here in Australia, everybody is able to get a FREE vaccination against H1N1 (Swine Flu). Very few people are taking up the offer – there is no belief in the risk.

Here is a presentation I prepared a few years back, oriented at the risks around H5N1 (Avian Flu). At the time I thought this a real risk – today H5N1 is probably a greater risk than H1N1, it will probably be a more extreme form of the flu. Let me restate - there is a current risk, it is perhaps not as extreme as we have made out.

I offer this simply as an example of how our thinking can, and should, evolve over time – as we develop improved “situational awareness”.

I have always been of the view that the greatest risk from Pandemic Influenza will come in the Northern Hemisphere flu season. That would be the next few weeks I assume. It could be really extreme if the virus morphs with an Avian variant.

What preparations is your enterprise making for the current (and next) wave of Pandemic Influenza?

Are you planning for an extreme impact, or a similar impact to the first H1N1 wave?

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Recently I had the opportunity to see this obsession with Greenfields approaches taken to the most amazing extreme.

I was asked to review an update of a client’s Pandemic Plan. The plan, like so many, is structured along the lines of the WHO’s Phases – and outlines activities that are intended to be undertaken at each Phase.

I questioned the lack of any obvious escalation from the current position in respect of the WHO and national alert levels, only to be told that this plan had to address a “Greenfields” approach to all possible forms of Pandemic!

• They have outlined the activities they think should be undertaken at PHASE 1, and each Phase thereafter.

So,  when the current Pandemic passes AND

• Avian Influenza is wiped from the face of the earth
• Their Pandemic Plan will still be valid

My initial thought was that this was a total waste of time and effort, but then I realised they had listed the same actions to be undertaken at all Phases from 4-6. Less effort implies less waste.

First question they asked in the review was, “Is this a viable plan” – my answer NO!

Second question, “Will it meet the requirements of our Corporate BC Group?” –  unfortunately YES (it was their template after all that required the Phase 1 start).

The worst aspect of all this – not a word of it is made up, it is a real example.

How do you respond to something like this?

Have you seen this classic result of template-driven, “bottom up” planning in other aspects of a BCM Program?

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